02/21 - Trade analysis of AVAXUSDT.P

Market Summary

Market Regime

• Risk Mode: RISK-ON
• Volatility: MODERATE
• Liquidity: ABUNDANT
• Money Flow: ENTERING crypto markets

Pattern Fit

The rising wedge (contracting) pattern detected on the 1H timeframe aligns well with the current risk-on, moderate volatility market regime. The increasing institutional money flow and healthy volume distribution suggest a favorable environment for this pattern.

Key Risks

• Correlation risk with traditional assets
• Potential for volatility spikes and false breakouts
• Increased coupling with BTC and ETH price action

Pattern Analysis

• Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Contracting)
• Strength Score: MODERATE
• Market Regime Alignment Score: HIGH

Trade Decision

• Confidence Score: 8
• Did Enter: true
• Trade Direction: LONG

Trade Parameters

• Entry Range: $25,300 - $25,500
• Stop Loss: $24,700
• Take Profit Target 1: $26,000
• Take Profit Target 2: $26,500
• Risk Reward Ratio: 1:2

Ongoing Monitoring

Invalidation Conditions

• Breakdown below the rising wedge support
• Significant volume divergence signaling pattern failure
• Sudden shift in market regime (e.g., risk-off, volatility spike)

Key Confirmations

• Breakout above the rising wedge resistance with increasing volume
• EMA (20/50) crossover and retest holding as support
• Continuation of the positive momentum on the 4H and Daily timeframes

Adjustments Based On Real Time Data

• Tighten stop-loss if price consolidates above the 20/50 EMA on the 1H
• Consider scaling out partially at the first take-profit target if volume confirms the breakout