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03/05 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk mode
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current volatility
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
  • Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to pattern direction
  • Macro Confidence Impact: The bullish BTC momentum and potential for upside break strongly support this pattern

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this setup
  • Sector Trend: STRENGTHENING
  • Volume Profile: MIXED
  • Correlations: Positive correlation with BTC, potential decoupling from equities

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Expanding)
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in bullish market conditions, but requires careful validation

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price above 20 EMA on 1H, below 50 EMA on 4H, below 200 EMA on 1D
  • Fvg Context: No significant Fair Value Gaps visible in the immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility supports potential breakout scenario

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: BULLISH
  • H4 Bias: NEUTRAL
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: MODERATE - Pattern aligns with macro bullish sentiment but lacks strong multi-timeframe confirmation
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Weak volume and mixed timeframe signals increase this risk
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Potential for stops below recent lows to be targeted
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before considering the pattern failed if no breakout occurs

Trade Decision

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