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03/07 - Trade analysis of SCRUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Macro analysis suggests bullish bias for BTC, contradicting bearish pattern on SCR

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: SCR showing weakness despite BTC strength

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Descending Channel
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: COMPLETE
  • Historical Reliability: Moderate reliability in bearish market conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price below all major EMAs across timeframes
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility supports continuation of bearish pattern

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: BEARISH
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: STRONG

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: MODERATE - pattern well-formed but contradicts macro trend
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - potential for reversal due to overall market strength
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - stops likely clustered above channel
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before pattern loses validity

Trade Decision

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