Market Context
Macro Analysis Alignment
- Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk-off mode
- Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current increasing volatility
- Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
- Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to bearish pattern direction
- Macro Confidence Impact: Strongly supports bearish bias, increasing confidence in downside potential
Technical Environment
- Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this bearish setup
- Sector Trend: WEAKENING
- Volume Profile: MIXED
- Correlations: High correlation with SPX, negative correlation with DXY
Pattern Critical Analysis
Classification
- Pattern Type: Descending Triangle (Contracting)
- Formation Quality: MODERATE
- Completion Status: PARTIAL
- Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in risk-off, bearish environments
Technical Validation
- Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING bearish momentum
- Volume Confirmation: WEAK, lacking clear volume increase on breakouts
- Ema Relationship: Price below 20, 50, and 200 EMAs across timeframes, bearish
- Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in immediate price range
- Atr Context: Increasing volatility supports potential for sharp moves
Multi Timeframe Assessment
Timeframe Alignment
- H1 Bias: BEARISH
- H4 Bias: BEARISH
- Daily Bias: BEARISH
- Alignment Score: STRONG
Key Levels
- Support Zones: NA
- Resistance Zones: NA
- Liquidity Pools: NA
Probability Assessment
- Completion Probability: MODERATE (60-70%) - pattern aligns with macro but lacks strong volume
- False Breakout Risk: MODERATE - lack of volume increases risk of fakeout
- Stop Hunt Vulnerability: HIGH - 0.4300 level likely to be tested before further downside
- Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 48-72 hours, otherwise consider failed
Trade Decision
