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03/09 - Trade analysis of SCRUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT
  • Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE
  • Macro Confidence Impact: The risk-off sentiment and bearish trend for BTC strongly support a bearish bias for SCRUSDT

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: High correlation with SPX, negative correlation with DXY

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Ranging Channel
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: COMPLETE
  • Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in bearish market conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price below 20, 50, and 200 EMAs across all timeframes
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Increasing volatility supports potential for continued downside movement

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: BEARISH
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: STRONG

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: MODERATE - Channel could continue, but risk of breakdown is high
  • False Breakout Risk: LOW - Strong bearish momentum reduces likelihood of upward fakeout
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Potential for stop hunts above 0.4300
  • Time Decay Risk: Expect resolution within 24-48 hours, otherwise reassess

Trade Decision

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