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03/10 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: BORDERLINE
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Macro analysis suggests bearish bias for BTC, contradicting potential bullish breakout from descending triangle

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: BTC showing weakness, likely to drag down altcoins

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Descending Triangle (Contracting)
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: COMPLETE
  • Historical Reliability: Low reliability in current bearish macro environment

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price below 20, 50, and 200 EMAs on all timeframes
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs nearby
  • Atr Context: Low volatility may hinder clean breakout

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: NEUTRAL
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: CONTRADICTORY

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: LOW - Bearish macro environment and higher timeframe trends contradict potential bullish breakout
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Low volume and bearish higher timeframes increase likelihood of bull trap
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Tight range may lead to stop hunts in both directions
  • Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 48-72 hours, or consider it failed

Trade Decision

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