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03/12 - Trade analysis of AVAXUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: UNSUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: BORDERLINE
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: The risk-off sentiment and potential for further equity weakness significantly reduce confidence in this bullish pattern

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: AVAX likely to follow BTC's consolidation or potential downside

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Ascending Channel
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Low reliability in current risk-off conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price above 20 EMA on 1H, below all EMAs on 4H and 1D
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility unfavorable for clean channel continuation

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: BULLISH
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: CONTRADICTORY

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: LOW - Higher timeframes and macro environment unsupportive
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Likely to fail at upper channel boundary or 19.00 resistance
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: HIGH - Potential for stops below 17.50 to be targeted
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before pattern considered failed if no breakout

Trade Decision

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