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03/12 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: UNSUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: INSUFFICIENT
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: The risk-off sentiment and increased volatility significantly reduce confidence in this bullish pattern

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: RUNE likely to follow BTC's consolidation or potential downside

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Ascending Channel
  • Formation Quality: LOW
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Low reliability in current risk-off conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: DIVERGING
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price below all major EMAs on higher timeframes
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility unfavorable for clean channel formation

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: NEUTRAL
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: CONTRADICTORY

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: LOW - pattern contradicts higher timeframe trends and macro environment
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - weak volume and bearish higher timeframes increase fakeout probability
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: HIGH - potential for stops below 1.050 to be targeted
  • Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 24-48 hours, otherwise consider failed

Trade Decision

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