Market Context
Macro Analysis Alignment
- Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED
- Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE
- Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT
- Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE
- Macro Confidence Impact: The risk-off sentiment and bearish BTC trend strongly support a short trade on RUNE
Technical Environment
- Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE
- Sector Trend: WEAKENING
- Volume Profile: CONCERNING
- Correlations: Strong positive correlation with BTC, which is testing critical support
Pattern Critical Analysis
Classification
- Pattern Type: Descending Channel
- Formation Quality: MODERATE
- Completion Status: COMPLETE
- Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in bearish market conditions
Technical Validation
- Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING
- Volume Confirmation: WEAK
- Ema Relationship: Price below 20, 50, and 200 EMAs on all timeframes
- Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
- Atr Context: Current volatility supports continuation of the bearish trend
Multi Timeframe Assessment
Timeframe Alignment
- H1 Bias: BEARISH
- H4 Bias: BEARISH
- Daily Bias: BEARISH
- Alignment Score: STRONG
Key Levels
- Support Zones: NA
- Resistance Zones: NA
- Liquidity Pools: NA
Probability Assessment
- Completion Probability: MODERATE - Channel continuation likely but volume is concerning
- False Breakout Risk: LOW - Strong alignment with macro trends reduces false breakout risk
- Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - $1.15 level could be targeted for stop hunts
- Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 48-72 hours, otherwise consider it failed
Trade Decision
- Confidence Score: 7.2
- Confidence Category: CONDITIONAL
- Decision: CONDITIONAL
- Direction: SHORT
- Reasoning: Strong bearish alignment across timeframes and with macro context, but weak volume is concerning
Trade Execution Plan
Entry
- Zone: 1.13 - 1.15
- Trigger: Rejection from upper channel boundary with increased volume
- Order Type: LIMIT
- Timing Window: Next 12-24 hours
Risk Management
- Stop Loss Price: 1.18
- Stop Loss Logic: Just above recent swing high and channel upper boundary
- Position Sizing: 1% of trading capital, accounting for higher volatility
- Max Holding Time: 72 hours
Take Profit
- Tp1 Price: 1.08
- Tp1 Justification: Previous support level within channel
- Tp2 Price: 1.02
- Tp2 Justification: Lower boundary of descending channel
- Scaling Strategy: Exit 50% at TP1, move stop to breakeven, ride remainder to TP2
Invalidation Scenarios
- Clean break and close above 1.18 on 4H timeframe
- BTC showing strong reversal signs above $80,000
Monitoring Focus
- Confirmations Needed: NA
- Warning Signals: NA
- Correlated Assets: NA
