Market Context
Macro Analysis Alignment
- Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk-off sentiment
- Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current high volatility regime
- Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
- Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to bearish pattern direction
- Macro Confidence Impact: Strongly supports bearish bias, increasing confidence in downside potential
Technical Environment
- Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this setup, as BTC is bearish below key EMAs
- Sector Trend: WEAKENING
- Volume Profile: MIXED
- Correlations: Strong BTC-SPX correlation suggests further downside if equities weaken
Pattern Critical Analysis
Classification
- Pattern Type: Descending Triangle (Expanding)
- Formation Quality: MODERATE
- Completion Status: COMPLETE
- Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in bearish market conditions
Technical Validation
- Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING bearish momentum
- Volume Confirmation: WEAK, lacking clear volume increase on breakout
- Ema Relationship: Price below 20, 50, and 200 EMAs across timeframes, bearish
- Fvg Context: No significant Fair Value Gaps visible in immediate price range
- Atr Context: Elevated volatility supports potential for larger price moves
Multi Timeframe Assessment
Timeframe Alignment
- H1 Bias: BEARISH
- H4 Bias: BEARISH
- Daily Bias: BEARISH
- Alignment Score: STRONG
Key Levels
- Support Zones: NA
- Resistance Zones: NA
- Liquidity Pools: NA
Probability Assessment
- Completion Probability: MODERATE, pattern has broken down but lacks strong volume confirmation
- False Breakout Risk: MODERATE, due to weak volume on initial breakdown
- Stop Hunt Vulnerability: LOW, as price has already moved significantly below pattern
- Time Decay Risk: Expect resolution within 48-72 hours, or consider failed
Trade Decision
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