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03/15 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: NEUTRAL with provided risk mode
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current moderate volatility
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
  • Money Flow Compatibility: NEUTRAL to pattern direction
  • Macro Confidence Impact: The consolidating market with slight bearish bias aligns with the converging triangle pattern, but doesn't strongly support a directional bias

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: NEUTRAL to this setup
  • Sector Trend: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: Potential impact from S&P 500 short-term recovery and USD weakness

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Converging Triangle
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Moderate reliability in consolidating markets with slight directional bias

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price consolidating between 20 and 50 EMA on 1H, below all EMAs on 4H and 1D
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility supports potential breakout from this pattern

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: NEUTRAL
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: MODERATE - triangle nearing apex, but lack of volume is concerning
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - low volume and mixed timeframe signals increase this risk
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - tight consolidation could lead to stop hunts in both directions
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before considering the pattern failed if no breakout occurs

Trade Decision

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