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03/16 - Trade analysis of ETHUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk-on stance
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current volatility
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
  • Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to pattern direction
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Macro analysis supports bullish momentum in crypto, increasing confidence in potential upside

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this setup
  • Sector Trend: STRENGTHENING
  • Volume Profile: MIXED
  • Correlations: BTC-DXY inverse correlation strengthening, supporting crypto upside

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Expanding)
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Historically unreliable in strong bullish macro environments

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price above 20 EMA on 1H, mixed on higher timeframes
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility supportive of pattern development

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: BULLISH
  • H4 Bias: NEUTRAL
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: LOW - Rising wedges often fail in strong bullish environments
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Lack of volume confirmation increases false breakout risk
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Potential for stops below recent lows to be targeted
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before considering pattern failed

Trade Decision

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