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03/16 - Trade analysis of ETHUSDT.P

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk-on stance
  • Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current moderate volatility
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
  • Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to pattern direction
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Macro analysis supports bullish bias, increasing confidence in potential upside

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this setup, showing bullish momentum
  • Sector Trend: STRENGTHENING with risk-on sentiment
  • Volume Profile: MIXED, lacking clear confirmation
  • Correlations: BTC-DXY inverse correlation supports potential ETH upside

Pattern Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Pattern Type: Ascending Channel
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: PARTIAL
  • Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in risk-on environments, but requires volume confirmation

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: DIVERGING, showing potential weakness
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK, lacking clear bullish volume
  • Ema Relationship: Price below 20 EMA on 1H and 4H, bearish short-term
  • Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in immediate vicinity
  • Atr Context: Current volatility supportive of channel continuation

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • H1 Bias: NEUTRAL to slightly bullish
  • H4 Bias: BEARISH
  • Daily Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Completion Probability: LOW due to bearish higher timeframes and lack of volume
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH, especially at upper channel boundary
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE, potential for stops below 1850
  • Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before considering pattern failed

Trade Decision

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