03/19 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context

Macro Analysis Alignment

• Risk Mode Alignment: NEUTRAL with provided risk mode
• Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current moderate volatility
• Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
• Money Flow Compatibility: NEUTRAL to pattern direction
• Macro Confidence Impact: The neutral market bias with a bullish skew provides a cautiously optimistic backdrop for this potential breakout, but does not strongly confirm it

Technical Environment

• Btc Influence: NEUTRAL to this setup
• Sector Trend: NEUTRAL
• Volume Profile: CONCERNING
• Correlations: BTC consolidation between $76,000-$85,000 may limit altcoin volatility

Pattern Critical Analysis

Classification

• Pattern Type: Ascending Triangle (Contracting)
• Formation Quality: MODERATE
• Completion Status: PARTIAL
• Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in consolidating markets, but requires strong volume confirmation

Technical Validation

• Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL
• Volume Confirmation: WEAK
• Ema Relationship: Price above 20 EMA, below 50 EMA on 1H; below both on 4H and 1D
• Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
• Atr Context: Current low volatility may hinder clean breakout

Multi Timeframe Assessment

Timeframe Alignment

• H1 Bias: BULLISH
• H4 Bias: NEUTRAL
• Daily Bias: BEARISH
• Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

• Support Zones: NA
• Resistance Zones: NA
• Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment

• Completion Probability: LOW - weak volume and multi-timeframe misalignment reduce likelihood of clean breakout
• False Breakout Risk: HIGH - low volatility and weak volume increase chances of a fakeout
• Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - tight range may attract stop hunting below support
• Time Decay Risk: 48-72 hours before considering the pattern failed if no breakout occurs

Trade Decision