03/20 - Trade analysis of COWUSDT.P

Market Context

Macro Analysis Alignment

• Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk-on sentiment
• Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current moderate volatility
• Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
• Money Flow Compatibility: SUPPORTIVE to pattern direction
• Macro Confidence Impact: The risk-on sentiment and BTC consolidation with bullish bias supports a potential breakout, increasing confidence in the rising wedge pattern

Technical Environment

• Btc Influence: SUPPORTIVE to this setup, consolidating with bullish bias
• Sector Trend: STRENGTHENING with risk-on sentiment
• Volume Profile: MIXED, recent volume spike but overall low trading volume
• Correlations: Negative correlation with DXY, positive with SPX

Pattern Critical Analysis

Classification

• Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Contracting)
• Formation Quality: MODERATE
• Completion Status: PARTIAL
• Historical Reliability: Moderately reliable in risk-on environments, but requires strong volume confirmation

Technical Validation

• Rsi Confirmation: NEUTRAL, RSI showing slight bullish momentum
• Volume Confirmation: WEAK, recent volume spike but overall low volume
• Ema Relationship: Price above 20 and 50 EMA on 1H and 4H, bullish
• Fvg Context: No significant fair value gaps visible
• Atr Context: Current volatility supportive of gradual upward movement

Multi Timeframe Assessment

Timeframe Alignment

• H1 Bias: BULLISH
• H4 Bias: BULLISH
• Daily Bias: NEUTRAL to slightly BULLISH
• Alignment Score: MODERATE

Key Levels

• Support Zones: NA
• Resistance Zones: NA
• Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment

• Completion Probability: MODERATE (60-65%), supported by macro but hindered by low volume
• False Breakout Risk: MODERATE to HIGH due to low volume and proximity to resistance
• Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE, potential for stops below 0.3000
• Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 24-48 hours to maintain validity

Trade Decision