03/21 - Trade analysis of RUNEUSDT.P

Market Context

Macro Analysis Alignment

• Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk mode
• Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current volatility
• Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
• Money Flow Compatibility: NEUTRAL to pattern direction
• Macro Confidence Impact: The cautiously bullish bias and consolidation in BTC supports a potential breakout, but RUNE's specific pattern requires careful validation

Technical Environment

• Btc Influence: NEUTRAL to this setup
• Sector Trend: NEUTRAL
• Volume Profile: CONCERNING
• Correlations: BTC consolidation may limit upside potential

Pattern Critical Analysis

Classification

• Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Contracting)
• Formation Quality: MODERATE
• Completion Status: COMPLETE
• Historical Reliability: Historically unreliable in consolidating markets, often leading to false breakouts

Technical Validation

• Rsi Confirmation: DIVERGING
• Volume Confirmation: WEAK
• Ema Relationship: Price below 20 EMA on 1H, between 20 and 50 EMA on 4H, below all EMAs on 1D
• Fvg Context: No significant Fair Value Gaps visible
• Atr Context: Low volatility environment may lead to choppy price action

Multi Timeframe Assessment

Timeframe Alignment

• H1 Bias: NEUTRAL
• H4 Bias: NEUTRAL
• Daily Bias: BEARISH
• Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

• Support Zones: NA
• Resistance Zones: NA
• Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment

• Completion Probability: LOW - Rising wedge in a consolidating market with bearish daily trend
• False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Low volume and RSI divergence increase likelihood of failed breakout
• Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Tight consolidation may lead to stop hunts in both directions
• Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 24-48 hours, otherwise consider failed

Trade Decision