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03/26 - Custom Trade analysis of PIUSDT (15m)

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: UNSUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: INSUFFICIENT
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Significantly reduces setup confidence due to overall bearish trend

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: Strong negative correlation with BTC and overall market

Setup Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Setup Type: POTENTIAL_REVERSAL
  • Formation Quality: LOW
  • Completion Status: EARLY-STAGE
  • Historical Reliability: Poor in current market conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: DIVERGING
  • Volume Confirmation: WEAK
  • Ema Relationship: Price below all EMAs across timeframes
  • Fvg Context: Multiple bearish FVGs above current price
  • Atr Context: High volatility, increasing downside risk

Fair Value Gap Analysis


  • Unmitigated Fvgs: NA
  • Fvg Alignment: Bearish alignment, multiple overhead resistances
  • Fvg Significance: Large gaps indicating strong selling pressure
  • Retracement Potential: High likelihood of continued downward movement
  • Fvg Based Targets: NA

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • Main Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Second Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Third Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: STRONG

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Success Probability: LOW - Strong bearish trend across all timeframes
  • False Breakout Risk: HIGH - Recent bounce likely a bull trap
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: HIGH - Potential for stops above 0.85
  • Time Decay Risk: Extended bearish movement expected
  • Short Term Retracement Probability: MODERATE - Oversold conditions may lead to brief relief

Trade Decision

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