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03/26 - Custom Trade analysis of SOLUSDT (15m)

Market Context


Macro Analysis Alignment

  • Risk Mode Alignment: MISALIGNED
  • Volatility Suitability: UNSUITABLE
  • Liquidity Sufficiency: INSUFFICIENT
  • Money Flow Compatibility: CONTRADICTORY
  • Macro Confidence Impact: Significant negative impact on setup confidence due to misalignment with current risk-off environment

Technical Environment

  • Btc Influence: CONTRADICTORY
  • Sector Trend: WEAKENING
  • Volume Profile: CONCERNING
  • Correlations: Strong correlation with overall crypto market weakness

Setup Critical Analysis


Classification

  • Setup Type: BREAKDOWN
  • Formation Quality: MODERATE
  • Completion Status: COMPLETE
  • Historical Reliability: Moderate reliability in similar market conditions

Technical Validation

  • Rsi Confirmation: CONFIRMING
  • Volume Confirmation: STRONG
  • Ema Relationship: Bearish alignment across timeframes
  • Fvg Context: Multiple downside FVGs supporting bearish momentum
  • Atr Context: Increased volatility supporting momentum

Fair Value Gap Analysis


  • Unmitigated Fvgs: NA
  • Fvg Alignment: Aligned with bearish direction
  • Fvg Significance: Moderate size gaps indicating potential resistance
  • Retracement Potential: Low short-term retracement likelihood
  • Fvg Based Targets: NA

Multi Timeframe Assessment


Timeframe Alignment

  • Main Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Second Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Third Timeframe Bias: BEARISH
  • Alignment Score: STRONG

Key Levels

  • Support Zones: NA
  • Resistance Zones: NA
  • Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment


  • Success Probability: MODERATE - Bearish momentum is strong but oversold conditions may lead to short-term bounces
  • False Breakout Risk: LOW - Multiple timeframe alignment reduces false breakout risk
  • Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE - Potential for stop hunts above recent swing highs
  • Time Decay Risk: Expected resolution within 24-48 hours
  • Short Term Retracement Probability: Low likelihood of significant retracement before further downside

Trade Decision

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