03/26 - Trade analysis of JUPUSDT

Market Context

Macro Analysis Alignment

• Risk Mode Alignment: ALIGNED with provided risk mode
• Volatility Suitability: SUITABLE for current volatility
• Liquidity Sufficiency: SUFFICIENT for trade execution
• Money Flow Compatibility: NEUTRAL to pattern direction
• Macro Confidence Impact: The neutral bias with bullish tilt for crypto supports cautious optimism for this pattern, but decreasing BTC volume suggests caution

Technical Environment

• Btc Influence: NEUTRAL to this setup
• Sector Trend: STRENGTHENING
• Volume Profile: CONCERNING
• Correlations: BTC consolidation near ATHs may provide support, but SPX movement is critical

Pattern Critical Analysis

Classification

• Pattern Type: Rising Wedge (Expanding)
• Formation Quality: MODERATE
• Completion Status: PARTIAL
• Historical Reliability: Historically unreliable in consolidation phases near market highs

Technical Validation

• Rsi Confirmation: DIVERGING
• Volume Confirmation: WEAK
• Ema Relationship: Price above 20 and 50 EMA on 1H, but losing momentum
• Fvg Context: No significant FVGs visible in the immediate vicinity
• Atr Context: Current volatility supports potential for a breakout, but direction unclear

Multi Timeframe Assessment

Timeframe Alignment

• H1 Bias: BULLISH
• H4 Bias: NEUTRAL
• Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
• Alignment Score: WEAK

Key Levels

• Support Zones: NA
• Resistance Zones: NA
• Liquidity Pools: NA

Probability Assessment

• Completion Probability: LOW due to diverging RSI and weak volume
• False Breakout Risk: HIGH given the expanding nature of the wedge and market context
• Stop Hunt Vulnerability: MODERATE, particularly near the lower trendline
• Time Decay Risk: Pattern should resolve within 48-72 hours, or be considered failed

Trade Decision